01
Start with the problem
A machine-learning project should begin with a precise task and success criterion, not with a model. The team should define what input is available at prediction time, what the target represents, what decisions depend on the output and what errors matter.
02
Baselines
A simple baseline provides a reference point. Depending on the task this may be a constant predictor, linear model, heuristic, retrieval system or existing business rule.
Without a baseline, it is easy to mistake model complexity for progress.
03
Data quality
- Missing values
- Incorrect labels
- Duplicate records
- Sampling bias
- Temporal leakage
- Train-test contamination
- Unrepresentative deployment data
In many projects, improving the data-generating and labelling process produces more reliable gains than swapping one sophisticated model for another.
04
Validation strategy
The validation scheme should match deployment. Random splits can be inappropriate for temporal prediction, grouped observations, repeated measurements or data with strong correlations.
A test set should remain sufficiently isolated from iterative model development to preserve its role as an unbiased estimate of final performance.
05
Error analysis
Aggregate metrics hide structure. A useful error-analysis process identifies representative failures, groups them by cause, estimates their frequency and determines which intervention is likely to reduce them.
- Improve data
- Change labels
- Change features
- Change model
- Change threshold
- Add a specialized component
- Redefine the task
06
Deployment and monitoring
A model is part of a system. Production reliability depends on input validation, latency, resource usage, model versioning, observability, rollback procedures and monitoring for data and performance changes.